Tuesday, October 30, 2018

Facts Don't Matter

Elizabeth Warren can be forgiven for believing facts matter, but they don't. Stories matter, but only stories that "feel" true - true to the listener.

Warren released the results of the DNA test of her Native American heritage. What does this tell us?

Number 1, this tells us that she is owned by the Republicans - Trump, and before him, Scott Brown who also called her "Pocohontas". By responding with her own "fact checking", Warren is showing respect to the campaign distractions of Republican leaders. This situation is nearly identical to the demands for Obama's birth certificate. The accusations about Obama were really just a way to challenge his legitimacy as an appeal to a base that hated having an African American president.

The Republican strategy is always to distract from policy and focus on personal attacks. The more that Republican policy veers away from the preferences of large majorities of Americans, the more that winning requires showering negativity on their political opponents. And, for Republicans, lies are more powerful than facts because telling lies sends your opponents - Democrats and the purported responsible press - into fact checking mode which is a defensive posture of weakness. Members of the press express pride in fact checking, but fact checking in the current environment is a symptom of press failure. Fact checking someone like Trump who lies all the time as a tactic of distraction and confusion only adds to the confusion, especially when the fact checking includes analysis that says "Obama did it too, but when Obama did it, there was this difference...". Sorry, but when you frame the issue as "both sides" do it, the differences you invoke get lost in the shuffle.

Democrats, with their ceaseless faith in the power of truth and logic, continue to work on messages consistent with their belief that reality matters to everyone, that eventually, people will come around to the belief that reality matters. And it does, to anyone paying attention to politics. But the Trump base does not care.

More to come on this and the difference between placing focus on persons vs. policy.

Thursday, October 11, 2018

The Art of the Frame

George Lakoff tells us that Republican strategists are the masters of messaging. They understand the importance of being the first to frame an idea. Repeating the idea over and over - "Lyin' Ted" - crowds out competing thoughts, or any rational thinking for listeners who are so inclined.

But there is another side to the art of the frame.
source:theonion

In "Khashoggi’s Disappearance Puts Kushner’s Bet on Saudi Crown Prince at Risk", NYT reporters show that they do not understand the vulnerability of their outdated journalistic standards to inadvertent framing that they employ. If you try too hard to be "objective" to avoid framing as illegitimate, you create a frame of legitimacy.

Anyone who has paid attention to the emerging story of the Trump administration and the relationship with repressive regimes comes to the story with the following perspective:

Authoritarians have felt emboldened to ratchet up their authoritarian behavior with Trump in the White House, especially those who feel close to him.  Putin seems to be murdering political opponents with greater frequency and brazenness. That includes his stated enemies in the press.

The Trumps have not hesitated to use their position for personal financial gain. In fact, personal financial gain appears to be the primary goal. So it would not be surprising if the Trump administration would use Kushner's title of negotiator of peace in the Middle East as a cover for business initiatives aimed at financial gains for the Trumps.

In the NYT story about the relationship between Kushner and the Saudi Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, the writers apply a journalistic standard peculiar to the Times that says - anything germane to the story that has not been proved with verified evidence beyond a reasonable doubt should be completely omitted from the story lest the reader be left with a false impression.

By not providing this context - suspicions that a reasonable person may have - in this case, the fact that a strong personal and business relationship between the Trumps and the Saudi Royal Family, has emboldened Bin Salman to murder Khashoggi, (after all, the non-propaganda press in general and the Washington Post in particular have been designated enemies of Trump) the NYT frames the story more as a Saudi scandal that may damage Kushner's foreign policy"bet". So we are not talking about a family that has run a widespread corrupt business enterprise for years, evading taxes, most likely money laundering, and so on. No, we are talking about Jared Kushner, a young man like Bin Salman, who is interested in peace in he Middle East. Never mind stories like this:

Saudi Arabia's crown prince reportedly bragged about having Jared Kushner 'in his pocket' after being told classified information meant for Trump
OR this:
Top Trump fundraisers who sought to negotiate $1 billion in business deals with Middle East princes called Jared Kushner a 'Clown Prince'

which includes the line: "And US officials told The Washington Post in February that UAE officials had discussed ways to manipulate Kushner using his "complex business arrangements, financial difficulties, and lack of foreign-policy experience" as leverage."

Even today's WaPo, in a story - Crown prince sought to lure Khashoggi back to Saudi Arabia and detain him, U.S. intercepts show  - focused not on the relationship between Kushner and Khashoggi, but on the man's disappearance, includes the following line:
"Kushner’s relationship with Mohammed, known within national security agencies by the initials MBS, has long been the subject of suspicion by some American intelligence officials."

The frame of the Times story is clear. This is a legitimate presidential administration and Jared Kushner is a legitimate Middle East negotiator, not someone who is badly compromised. Nothing in the story talks about Kushner's inability to obtain a security clearance (other than by father-in-law fiat.)

Based on the actions and inaction of this administration over the past two years, a reasonable person would now conclude that members of Congress will raise a stink over this murder of a dual American/Saudi citizen who worked for the Washington Post, but the Trumps will do nothing while calculating just how much they need to keep up appearances that they care or are willing to do something.

How soon will Trump use his infantile Russian technique - " I am tough on the Saudis. Hillary was always easy on the Saudis".

And why not? It works every time, because every statement Trump makes, instead of being immediately identified as a weapon of deception, is instead treated as a possible statement of fact that needs to be accepted as possibly true (thus sustaining the frame of possible truthfulness), and made subject to fact checking (as a first step into the wilderness of confusion) along with comparisons to Obama or Clinton (thus locking the door on any meaningful understanding with the death knell of false balance).